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The Closer Report » 2011 Draft Kit

2011 Draft Kit

January 12th, 2011 | Add a Comment

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The Closer Report has created
the first ever Closer Draft Kit.  The kit will be comprised of a
ranking of the top 50 relievers, player projections, injury risk and
stability rating,  team save
projections, closer ADP, and a draft strategy and closer talk podcast.

My projections are based on  a formula that uses
a combination of past statistics and a system of variables that
project “the best case scenario” player projections. I use injury,
consistency, stability and other “secret recipe” variables for all
players.

2011 Team Save Projections

TSP (Team Save Projections), IR (Injury Risk), and S(Stability). Stats
are Saves-Wins-ERA-WHIP-Strikeouts.
Injury risk (1-10) is evaluated with 10 being no injury risk and 5 a
certain trip to the DL.  Stability (1-10) is a measure of the
closers consistency and job security.
Last Updated 3/28/2011

Rk		 Player Projected Stats
IR/S		 TSP Side Note
1

Brian Wilson, SF

 46-5-3.07-1.31-74
9/10		 49 Absolutely a dominating
closer. No longer undervalued.
2

Joakim Soria, Kan

 43-4-1.90-1.10-74
9/10		 44 Coming off an injury year
and looked good.
3 Neftali Feliz 42-2.10-1.00-85
9/9		 50 Could easily be one of
the best closers in 2011.
4

Heath Bell, SD

 43-2-2.90-1.26-77
10/10		 46 Bell will have another
great year, but his WHIPERA will rise.
5

Carlos Marmol, ChC

 42-3-2.97-1.12-125
9/7		 46 Crazy Carlos is closing
again.  Should be fun.
6

Jonathan Broxton, LAD

 39-6-2.12-1.07-90
8/10		 44 It’s his job to lose.
Look for a rebound season.
7

Jose Valverde, Det

 38-4-2.89-1.15-77
9/10		 42 Started late and faded at
the end.  In-between he was amazing.
8

Andrew Bailey, Oak

 36-3-1.85-1.02-78
7/10		 49 He’s healthy and has a
great bullpen backing him up.
9

Matt Thorton, ChW

 39-2-2.99-1.18-80
10/10		 47 He’s a strikeout machine,
but as a lefty.  As a closer he might suffer a bit.
10

Francisco Rodriguez, NYM

 39-4-2.41-1.19-71
8/8		 40 KROD is coming off an
injury-laden year and should be fine.
11

Leo Nunez, Fla

 40-4-3.33-1.25-65
10/8		 45 He’s the closer, but his
consistency needs to improve.
12

Huston Street, Col

 36-5-3.01-1.04-65
7/10		 46 If Street stays healthy,
he could be one of the best.
13 John Axford, Mil 36-4-2.55-1.22-73
10/9		 37 Amazing rookie season.
He learned something from Hoffman.
14

Chris Perez, Cle

 35-3-2.01-1.10-71
10/9		 38 Here is another young
strong closer.  Just wish he pitched for a better team.
15

Jonathan Papelbon, Bos

 34-2-2.99-1.17-67
9/9		 44 He may start and is
coming off his worst year.
16 Fernando Rodney, LAAL 38-3-4.02-1.39-60
10/8		 43 He should have a fine
season.  Angels will not give up on him.
17

Craig Kimbrel, Atl

 27-3-2.11-1.23-85
10/9		 38 Up and coming elite
closer.
18

Mariano Rivera, NYY

 30-2-2.45-1.14-45
7/10		 41 Still one of the best
closers in the game, but at 42?
19 Drew Storen, WAS 33-2-3.10-1.21-77
10/8		 36 Storen had a solid rookie
year and will get even better in 2011.
20 Francisco Cordero, Cin 35-2-4.23-1.49-54
8/9		 45 He’s due for a bad year,
I’d keep a distance.
21

Frank Francisco, Tor

 34-3.25-1.21-69
8/8		 45 He is the closer in
Tornoto.
22 J.J. Putz, Ari 30-2.79-1.12-70
8/10		 34 Putz could have a much
better year, but he closes for the D-backs.
23 Brandon
League, Sea		 32-6-2.95-1.10-62
10/9		 42 Will open the season as
closer and will likely keep the job.
24 Kevin Gregg, Bal 33-3.76-1.39-55
7/8		 39 Gregg has yet another
team to fade on. Still has the shaky knee.
25 Brandon Lyon, Hou 33-3.32-13.5-56
9/8		 38 The question is, how long
will he keep the job?
26

Brad Lidge, Phi

 27-6-3.55-1.38-60
7/8		 44 I just don’t buy that he
can stay healthy or effective all season.
27 Joe Nathan, Min 32-4-2.20-1.07-74
8/10		 48 He expects to be ready by
spring.  We will see.
28 Kyle Farnsworth, TB 31-4-3.12-1.14-65
9/8		 44 I’m not even sure he is
closing, but for now he’s the best bet.
29 Joel Hanrahan, PIT 23-3-3.46-1.20-89
9/8		 31 He looked real good in
2010.  We will see if it will continue in 2011.
30

Ryan Franklin, StL

 20-4-3.95-1.29-40
9/10		 35 St. Louis just doesn’t
produce saves.
31 Jon Rauch, Tor 10-7-3.45-1.34-50
10/8		 45 He will see plenty of
saves while backing up Dotel.
32 Jason Motte, StL 15-5-2.45-1.21-67
10/9		 35 By seasons end, he will
be the Cardnials closer
33

Luke Gregerson,  SD

 5-6-2.68-0.98-81
10/10		 46 One of the top setup men
in the game, but sits behind Bell.
34 Chris Sale, ChW 8-5-2.10-1.13-82
10/9		 47 Sale could be the closer
by mid-season, but Guillen won’t insult his  Thorton.
Well….
35

Matt Capps, Min

 12-6-3.12-1.17-56
8/9		 48 He could have the job
early on until Nathan gets going.
36

Rafael Soriano, NYY

 11-6-2.10-1.02-74
9/9		 41 Sadly, he will setup for
Rivera.
37

Ryan Madson, Phi

 14-4-2.75-1.09-77
8/9		 44 Let’s not kick walls and
show your closer potential.
38 Daniel
Bard, Bos		 7-4-2.22-1.13-80
10/9		 44 He will setup Papelbon
and should put up great numbers.
39

David Aardsma, Sea

 9-5-4.23-1.32-62
7/8		 42 After hip surgery, he may
not close again.
40 Kenley Jansen, LAD 4-5-1.12-1.12-77
10/9		 44 Won’t likely close, but
should be a setup man with strong numbers.
41

Brian Fuentes, Oak

 7-6-2.86-1.30-48
9/8		 49 He will setup Andrew
Bailey in Oakland.  Should see saves.
42 Matt
Lindstrom, Col		 9-7-4.35-1.45-49
9/7		 46 Will backup Street and
that means possible saves.
43

Evan Meek, PIT

 8-4-2.20-1.17-72
10/10		 31 One of the top setup men
in baseball.  Expect another great season.
44 Clay Hensley, FLA 5-5-2.25-1.09-75
10/9		 45 He’s a closer in
disguise.  Own him if you have Nunez.
45 Alberto Arias, Hou 4-5-2.89-1.32-68
10/8		 38 He’s 3rd on the depth
chart, but should move up quickly.
46 Koji Uehara, Bal 4-3.10-1.09-62
9/9		 39 He should setup Gregg and
that is good for save chances.
47 Juan Gutierrez, Ari 4-4.23-1.21-55
8/8		 34 Did a good job closing
out game ending last season.  Should see chances this year.
48

Kerry Wood, ChC

 4-4-3.33-1.31-50
6/7		 46 He’s back in Chicago and
backing up Marmol.
49 Michael
Wuertz, Oak		 3-3-3.22-1.12-65
9/9		 49 He’s 3rd on a injury
laden bullpen. No bad.
50

Bobby Jenks, Bos

 2-6-3.97-1.36-56
9/8		 44 Added to a deep bullpen
where he is 3rd on the charts.
51

Matt Guerrier, LAD

 1-6-2.45-1.12-44
9/8		 44 He’s got allot of
competition, but should open the season in the setup role.
52

LaTroy Hawkins, Mil

 1-6-3.22-1.35-48
7/9		 37 He won’t do much behind a
strong Axford.
53

Mike Gonzalez, Bal

 2-4.25-1.19-56
8/8		 39 He will face lefties, but
might see a few saves.

 

 

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