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The Closer Report » 2012 Closer Draft Kit 21-40

2012 Closer Draft Kit 21-40

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The Closer Report has created the first ever Closer Draft Kit. The kit will be comprised of a ranking of the top 50+ relievers, player projections, injury risk and stability rating, team save projections, closer ADP, and a draft strategy and closer talk podcast. My projections are based on a formula that uses a combination of past statistics and a system of variables that project “the best case scenario” player projections. I use injury, consistency, stability and other “secret recipe” variables for all players.

2012 Team Save Projections

TSP (Team Save Projections), IR (Injury Risk), and S(Stability). Stats are Saves-Wins-ERA-WHIP-Strikeouts. Injury risk (1-10) is evaluated with 10 being no injury risk and 5 a certain trip to the DL. Stability (1-10) is a measure of the closers consistency and job security.

 

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Rk
Player Projected Stats
IR/S

TSP

Side Note
21 J.J. Putz, ARI 32-3-3.01-1.09-57

7/9

  Putz is a major injury risk at 35. He’d be a risk at 25! Handcuff him!
22 Mariano Rivera, NYY 33-6-2.55-1.17-53

9/10

  At 41+, even Rivera has to start a steady and steep decline. I’d just look elsewhere for a closer.
23 Joel
Hanrahan, PIT
35-4-2.86-1.19-59

9/9

  Hanrahan will not repeat last years numbers, but will still be a very serviceable closer on a terrible team.
24 Joe Nathan, TX 32-2-3.45-1.22-72

7/9

  Nathan will turn 38 in 2012 and is coming off Tommy John surgery. His health and age are major reasons to stay away.
25 Kyle Farnsworth, TB 30-2-2.77-1.14-55

10/9

  Farnsworth showed he can close. Now he’ll get a chance at a full season. Temper expectations a tad.
26 Matt Lindstrom, COL 15-4-2.92-1.30-60

9/9

  With the mess in Colorado, expect Lindstrom to get plenty of saves
27

Kevin Gregg, BAL

27-4-3.77-1.44-57

9/7

  Gregg is a average closer on a bad team. Hopefully the Orioles can improve in 2012 and give Gregg more save chances.
28

Matt Capps, MIN

21-5-4.05-1.19-32

9/7

  Capps is
not a closer you want on your roster. His stats are bad and he may not
close for long.

29

Glen Perkins, MIN

22-4-2.25-1.15-69

10/9

  Perkins
could be the closer by June. Stay tuned for the “Capps Watch.”
30

Brian Fuentes, OAK

27-5-3.44-1.25-44

10/8

  Fuentes
should be the opening day closer for the A’s, but for how long?
31

Rafael Betancourt, COL

19-4-3.31-1.05-69

10/8

  I’m not
sold that Betancourt will be the Rockies closer. Maybe to start, but not to
finish.
32 Sean Marshall, CIN 11-6-2.02-1.02-76 10/10   Marshall is a great setup man with all the potential
in the world to take over as closer if needed.  I expect him to notch
double-digit saves.
33

Jonny Venters, ATL

9-6-1.92-1.04-92

10/9

  Venters
will be used to spell Kimbrel when rest is needed. That could be often
34

Brandon Lyon, HOU

22-4-3.42-1.25-49

8/7

  Lyon
won’t close the entire season and may not even open the season as closer.
Stay away.

35

Joel Peralta, TB

15-6-2.68-0.99-62

10/9

  Peralta
continues to improve as a late inning pitcher. He is quickly developing
into a future closer.
36

Wilton Lopez, HOU

18-6-2.40-1.18-61

9/9

  Lopez is next tin line to close when Lyon fails.
37

Kenley Jansen, LAD

12-3-1.99-1.16-115

8/10

  Jansen
could be the opening day closer. His K/9 is filthy.
38

Tyler Clippard, WAS

7-4-2.05-0.96-108

10/10

  Clippard
is a closer in the making, but stands behind Storen. If Storen gets moved
to the rotation, Clippard is the closer in D.C.

39

Mark Melancon, BOS

14-7-3.02-1.18-71

10/9

  Anyone
who backs up Andrew Bailey will see saves. FACT.
40 Dave Robertson, NYY 9-4-1.80-1.18-105

10/10

  Robertson is
in line to be the next Yankee closer. Have him on your roster.

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