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The Closer Report » 2012 Closer Draft Kit 1-20

2012 Closer Draft Kit 1-20

January 18th, 2012 | Add a Comment

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The Closer Report 2012 Draft Kit.  The kit will be comprised of a
ranking of the top 50+ relievers, player projections, injury risk and stability rating,  team save projections, closer ADP, and a draft strategy and closer talk podcast. My projections are based on  a formula that uses a combination of past statistics and a system of variables that project “the best case scenario” player projections. I use injury, consistency, stability and other “secret recipe” variables for all players.

2012 Team Save Projections

TSP (Team Save Projections), IR (Injury Risk), and S(Stability). Stats are Saves-Wins-ERA-WHIP-Strikeouts. Injury risk (1-10) is evaluated with 10 being no injury risk and 5 a certain trip to the DL.  Stability (1-10) is a measure of the closers consistency and job security.
Last Updated 2/20/2012

Next 20 >>>>

Rk		 Player Projected Stats
IR/S

TSP

 Side Note


1

 Heath Bell, FLA 45-4-2.56-1.17-55

10/10

   Bell will pitch in a huge park and get plenty of chances with a revamped Marlins team.


2

 Craig Kimbrel, ATL 43-5-2.45-1.11-114

10/9

   Kimbrel coming off ROY honors has an improved pitching staff, and will produce big numbers again.

3

Andrew Bailey, BOS

 44-5-2.01-0.97-95

8/10

   Bailey will be heavily used out of the Boston bullpen and set a career high in innings IF he can stay healthy. Big IF.

4

 Jonathan Papelbon, PHI 42-3-2.46-0.98-82

10/10

   Papelbon will likely maintain an innings limit, but should dominate new NL lineups without a DH.

5

 Carlos Marmol, CHI 40-3-2.96-1.17-120

9/8

   Marmol will break 500 innings this season and have a break out year.  Draft him low.

6

 Brian Wilson, SF 41-5-2.45-1.22-79

9/10

   Wilson has a injury inflated season.  He should be 100% healthy for 2012 and get
back to his old self.


7

 John Axford, MIL 41-4-2.22-1.16-79

10/8

   Axford had a career year 2011.  Expect much of the same going into 2012.

8

 Joakim Soria, KAN 43-2-2.14-1.05-74

9/9

   2012 will be a bounce back year for Soria.  Expect him to be traded by the deadline if things aren’t going well for KC.
9

Ryan Madson, CIN

 41-2-2.42-1.08-77

10/10

   Madson makes a great closer for the next year.  He’s pitching for a big contract, so draft him and expect big results.
10 Brandon League, SEA 43-4-2.42-1.11-62

9/9

   League
will be the full-time closer this season and should hit 70 innings with a vastly improved Mariners team.
11 Huston Street, SD 42-5-3.42-1.17-60

8/10

   If healthy, Street could put up a dominating season in a pitchers park.
12

Jason Motte, STL

 41-3-1.88-0.92-71

10/9

   Jason Motte has arrived.  We’ve been expecting him to close.  Watch him dominate in 2012.
13 Drew Storen, WAS 39-5-2.40-1.10-70

10/9

   Storen will only get better, though hitters will hit him.  ACE closer at this
point.
14 Sergio Santos, TOR 38-2-3.25-1.17-85

10/9

   Santos will close for a new team in a much more talented division.  His numbers will likely reflect that.
15

Frank Francisco, NYM

 40-3-2.97-1.18-64

9/9

   Francisco will have a revitalized year with the NYM and post close to 40 saves if healthy.
16

Matt Thornton, CWS

 38-4-2.20-1.10-70

9/10

   Thornton will close for the White Sox and hopefully be more effective in 2012.  I like his stuff and his chances to achieve 40 saves.


17

 Jose Valverde, DET 39-3-3.41-1.24-64

8/9

   Valverde is coming off a perfect, but turns 34 in 2012.  He and Tigers will regress.
18 Chris Perez, CLE 38-5-2.98-1.20-40

10/9

   Perez has the talent to be a ACE closer, but his consistency and Ks have prevented that so far.
19 Jordan Walden, LAA 37-5-2.70-1.18-72

10/8

   Walden enjoyed a solid rookie season.  His 10 blown saves will be reduced with a better team and more confidence in 2012.
20

Javy Guerra, LAD

 35-3-2.78-1.11-62

10/7

   Mattingly will abuse his bullpen and that means plenty of saves for Guerra.

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