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The Closer Report » 2012 Closer Draft Kit 1-20

2012 Closer Draft Kit 1-20

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The Closer Report 2012 Draft Kit. The kit will be comprised of a
ranking of the top 50+ relievers, player projections, injury risk and stability rating, team save projections, closer ADP, and a draft strategy and closer talk podcast. My projections are based on a formula that uses a combination of past statistics and a system of variables that project “the best case scenario” player projections. I use injury, consistency, stability and other “secret recipe” variables for all players.

2012 Team Save Projections

TSP (Team Save Projections), IR (Injury Risk), and S(Stability). Stats are Saves-Wins-ERA-WHIP-Strikeouts. Injury risk (1-10) is evaluated with 10 being no injury risk and 5 a certain trip to the DL. Stability (1-10) is a measure of the closers consistency and job security.

Last Updated 4/1/2012

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Rk
Player Projected Stats
IR/S

TSP

Side Note


1

Heath Bell, FLA 45-4-2.56-1.17-55

10/10

Bell will pitch in a huge park and get plenty of chances with a revamped Marlins team.


2

Craig Kimbrel, ATL 43-5-2.45-1.11-114

10/9

Kimbrel coming off ROY honors has an improved pitching staff, and will produce big numbers again.

3

Andrew Bailey, BOS

44-5-2.01-0.97-95

8/10

Bailey will be heavily used out of the Boston bullpen and set a career high in innings IF he can stay healthy. Big IF.

4

Jonathan Papelbon, PHI 42-3-2.46-0.98-82

10/10

Papelbon will likely maintain an innings limit, but should dominate new NL lineups without a DH.

5

Carlos Marmol, CHI 40-3-2.96-1.17-120

9/8

Marmol will break 500 innings this season and have a break out year. Draft him low.

6

Brian Wilson, SF 41-5-2.45-1.22-79

9/10

Wilson has a injury inflated season. He should be 100% healthy for 2012 and get
back to his old self.


7

John Axford, MIL 41-4-2.22-1.16-79

10/8

Axford had a career year 2011. Expect much of the same going into 2012.
8 Brandon League, SEA 43-4-2.42-1.11-62

9/9

League
will be the full-time closer this season and should hit 70 innings with a vastly improved Mariners team.
9 Huston Street, SD 40-5-3.46-1.17-60

8/10

If healthy, Street could put up a dominating season in a pitchers park.
10

Jason Motte, STL

41-3-1.88-0.92-71

10/9

Jason Motte has arrived. We’ve been expecting him to close. Watch him dominate in 2012.
11


Sean Marshall, CIN

38-2-2.52-1.08-82

10/10

Marshall was my first pick to close for the Reds.  Now we will see how
that works out.
12 Sergio Santos, TOR 38-2-3.25-1.17-85

10/9

Santos will close for a new team in a much more talented division. His numbers will likely reflect that.
13

Frank Francisco, NYM

40-3-2.97-1.18-64

9/9

Francisco will have a revitalized year with the NYM and post close to 40 saves if healthy.
14


Matt Thornton, CWS

36-4-2.20-1.10-70

9/10

Thornton will close for the White Sox and hopefully be more effective in
2012. I like his stuff and his chances to achieve 40 saves.
15 Jose Valverde, DET 39-3-3.41-1.24-64

8/9

Valverde is coming off a perfect, but turns 34 in 2012. He and Tigers will regress.
16 Jordan Walden, LAA 37-5-2.70-1.18-72

10/8

Walden enjoyed a solid rookie season. His 10 blown saves will be reduced with a better team and more confidence in 2012.
17

Javy Guerra, LAD

35-3-2.78-1.11-62

10/7

Mattingly will abuse his bullpen and that means plenty of saves for Guerra.
18 Drew Storen, WAS 33-5-2.55-1.10-61

10/9

Storen will only get better, though hitters will hit him. ACE closer at this
point.
19
J.J. Putz, ARI
33-3-3.01-1.09-57 7/9 Putz is a major injury risk at 35. He’d be a risk at 25! Handcuff him!
20
Mariano Rivera, NYY
35-6-2.49-1.16-53 9/10 At 41+, even Rivera has to start a steady and steep decline. I’d just look
elsewhere for a closer.

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