2012 Player Profile: Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies

Jonathan Papelbon has spent the last six years doing one thing and doing it well.  Closing games.  For the Red Sox, Papelbon saved 219 games in 247 chances.  Consider it even more remarkable that he did it in the American League East (44 saves against Yankees and Rays).  However, I and many others feel that the closer needed a change of scenery and in 2012 he will open the season closing for the Philadelphia Phillies. 

The Phillies present a great opportunity for Papelbon at the age of 31.  First, he’s still with an organization dedicated to winning.  Even better, it’s the NL East.  Now, I’m not saying the NL East is a push over.  The Braves and Marlins will be a challenge for any pitcher. Still, it’s just not the AL East.  Along with facing new National League teams, Papelbon also avoids the dreaded DH.  That means, he will see more cold bats off the bench and that is definitely an advantage for the hard throwing right hander.

Now there are some concerns with Papelbon.  First, his tired arm issue that forced the Red Sox to keep him at an innings limit of 70.  Will the Phillies do the same?  I assume so.  Therefore, there will be rules on how the Phillies will use him and you should handcuff Papelbon with Antonio Bastardo to sneak some saves that Papelbon wouldn’t otherwise get.  While Papelbon has had some injury issues, he is a reliable healthy pitcher for the 2012 campaign.

Papelbon is classified as a flame thrower.  While he has lost some zip on his fastball over the years, it still rings in at 96 MPH.  He also mixes in his great splitter and average slider.  What Papelbon is all about and what will serve him well in the National League is location.  He is great at hitting the high strike, and frankly I know him more for that then his rendition of the Irish jig.  As long as Papelbon can keep his velocity above 94 MPH and hit that high strike, he will be a successful closer.

The Closer Report 2012 Projections: 42 Sv – 3 Wins - 2.46 ERA – 0.98 WHIP – 82 Ks 

2012 Fantasy Draft Analysis:

 Draft Papelbon high, say 7th or 8th round.  You will not regret it.  I will assume that he will not make it that far in most drafts, but if you are sitting there in the 8th round and he is on the board and you haven’t added a closer yet, draft him.