Lets not joke.  J.J. Putz had an amazing comeback year in 2011, notching 45 saves for the well-built and oiled Arizona Diamondbacks team.  He even did that while missing most of July on the DL, which we have become accustomed to with J.J. Putz. Even more amazing, he put up 21 saves between August and September.  Everything about 2011 was amazing. His 2.17 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and a K/9 over 9!  Putz was one of the top closers in baseball for 2011. 

Now enter 2012 and let’s get back to reality.  Putz is a good closer, but his career has been plagued with injury and inconsistency.  In his nine-year career, Putz has only reached 70 appearances one, and more than 60 appearances five times.  He is also 35, which is a tough year for pitchers to hit.  Their stuff can certainly start to fade beyond 35.

So what do with J.J. Putz?  Do you expect a repeat of 2011 or something closer to his actual career? Lets start with the Diamondbacks.  They are a very good young team poised for a playoff run.  They have a solid, though shaky rotation led by Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson,  and the newly acquired Trevor Cahill.  Kennedy pitched amazingly last season and chances of him repeating that performance is not likely.  Still, the rotation of the Diamonbacks will get many leads to the bullpen.  In front of Putz he has several good veteran relievers including Takashi Saito, Brad Zeigler, and David Hernandez.  All that bodes well for Putz. As for the offense, it is shady.  After Upton and Montero, where will the hits come from?  Chris Young, Jason Kubel, Stephen Drew?  While the Diamondbacks have a sound offense, they’re going to suffer scoring droughts.

My concerns with Putz are his health.  If his arm “isn’t right” he won’t do well.  Last year Putz changed his pitching style a bit.  He threw more fastballs, less sliders, and continued to abuse hitters with his splitter.  His fastball tops out at 95 MPH and that is hittable by major league standards.  What he did so well in 2011 was hit his spots with his slider and threw a great splitter.  So, if you draft Putz in 2012 you have to hope for all that to play out in your favor again and I can tell you now, chances are slim. 

The Closer Report 2012 Projections: 32 Sv – 3 Wins - 3.01 ERA – 1.09 WHIP – 57 Ks

2012 Fantasy Draft Analysis:

J.J. Putz has an ADP around 133, which means if you want to draft him, you better get him by round 12.  I’ll pass on that.  At 35 and coming off a huge season, Putz is overvalued.  My recommendation is to pass on Putz that early.  If he is around in the 17th or 18th round take a chance, but otherwise you are taking on a closer who is injury prone, and hasn’t had two great back-to-back seasons since 2006-2007.

Last year, among all the messes that the Dodgers organization was dealing with, one of them was their closer.  The Dodgers opened the season with Borxton who failed badly.  Then they tried several replacements like Kenley Jansen and others.  When Jansen hit the DL, they brought up Javy Guerra and the rest is history.  While I feel that Kenley Jansen is the future closer for the Dodgers, right now he is unreliable because of injury issues related to an irregular heart beat.  Jansen will be the setup man opening day.  In fact, the Dodgers bullpen is deep with veteran relief pitchers who should do well and keep Guerra in line for plenty of saves. 

Javy Guerra has limited experience as a closer. Last season he notched 21 saves in 23 opportunities. He pitched in 47 games for the Dodgers in 2011 and that is the total for his career.  Jumping on the Javy Guerra from a fantasy perspective could be a bit dangerous since he has yet to face normal closer adversary or close for an entire season.  That being said, the kid has good stuff. 

While Guerra did close in the minors, he has starter stuff.  He comes at hits with a 95 MPH fastball, slider, change-up, and curveball.  His out pitches are the change-up and curveball.  While all of his pitches are average, he got enough to get three outs in the ninth.  His main problems will be control (3.47 BB/9) and being tested in stressful situations.  Guerra walked 18 batters in under 47 innings in 2011.  While that isn’t horrible, it’s not good either.  Also, he isn’t battle tested and 2012 will be another crazy year for the Dodgers with the sale of the team yet completed.

 The positives on Guerra are very good.  He did a great job closing in 2011 and has secured the job for 2012.  At 26, he is young and healthy and shouldn’t have any injury issues for the coming season.  He’s got a great track record through the minors and into the majors.  If Guerra can stay focused and healthy he will have a great season.  If not, Mattingly can put Jansen in at any time. 

Guerra will be a bargain no matter where he is drafted, so if you decide to draft him, make him a tier 3 closer for your team and have two suitable closers already drafted.

The Closer Report 2012 Projections: 35 Sv – 6 Wins – 2.78 ERA – 1.11 WHIP – 62 Ks

2012 Fantasy Draft Analysis:

Javy Guerra’s ADP is a staggering 283 (24th round).  He is a steal at that point.  I would start targeting Guerra around round 19 or 20.  If he is the best player available that meets your needs, draft him.  Beware that with the craziness of the Dodgers, he might not be the closer come seasons end, either he will get traded or lose the job outright.

Jordan Walden slammed onto the scene last season and made waves as the new closer for the LA Angels.  While his start was strong and secured the job for himself, his overall performance wasn’t as sweet.  Walden finished with 32 saves in his rookie season, but 10 blown saves to shadow his otherwise solid numbers.  He notched 67 Ks in 60 innings and finished with a nice 2.98 ERA.  So what is wrong with Walden? I dunno.  Lets see, he’s a flamethrower, he pitches for the Angels, and that is a good thing, and he’s young.   

The biggest problems that Walden had last season were confidence and control.  As a rookie, confidence is half the battle and when you lose confidence in yourself or in a pitch, that is bad for closers.  Walden has a lights out 98 MPH fastball, but controlling is another issue.  His BB/9 was uncomfortably high for a closer at 3.88. In fact, he walked batters in six of his ten blown saves.  None of this is terrible news for Walden.  Lets face it, he was a rookie and he learned.  

I fully expect Walden to further mature in the 2012 season.  He should accrue more confidence and hopefully throw his change-up more.  Right now it doesn’t locate the best, but complimenting his fastball with a change-up would make Walden absolutely dominating. 

With the team the Angels put together, Walden is an instant closer choice as a tier 2 closer for any fantasy team.  While there is risk with Walden, manager Mike Scioscia is committed to his closer and he showed that last year.  If I owned Walden, I’d stay committed as well.

The Closer Report 2012 Projections: 37 Sv – 5 Wins – 2.70 ERA – 1.18 WHIP – 72 Ks 

2012 Fantasy Draft Analysis:

 With an ADP around 157, Walden looks like a great value you pick in the 13th round.  However, It would entirely depend on who is available.  As much as I like Walden, I don’t like closers who we are “unsure” about.  I’d let Walden go in the 13th and if he is around in the 15th round and you really want a closer, take him there.

Chris Perez had a break out 2011.  After three season (two and half technically), Perez has established himself as the closer of the Cleveland Indians. Last season, Perez was 36/40 in save opportunities with a 3.32 ERA.  While on the surface, 2011 looks like a tremendously perfect year for Chris Perez, it was anything but that.  First, his ERA and WHIP jumped from his previous years success. What was also strange was Perez’s inability to record strikeouts.  After posting 61 Ks in 2010, he recorded only 39 in 2011.  The good news, we didn’t expect 61.  In fact, 2011 was more to the norm for Chris Perez and if you overlook his great numbers in 2010, you’ll notice that he actually had a great season. 

At 26, Chris Perez is one of the younger closers with great years ahead of him.  He has a natural maturity fo the game and playing for Dave Duncan back in St. Louis will serve him well throughout his pitching career.  Going into 2012, Perez is playing on a one-year year and hoping to sizzle in 2012 and get the big deal he deserves. 

While the Indians are a rebuilding team, they are also a young team with plenty of great players on it.  Even with all the problems they had last season, the Indians still managed 80 wins.  I believe with a healthy squad, the Indians can win between 82-85 games in 2012.  

The question on the minds of many are who is the real Chris Perez?  Has he peaked or can he achieve 40-45 saves?  As a straight fastball (94-95MPH) and slider pitcher.  He doesn’t throw anything fancy and depends on hitting his spot and pitches to contact.  Contact closers aren’t my favorite because it only takes one hit in a lot of cases to blow a save and the more contact you can avoid, the better.

Perez should have a fine year and in a perfect world with a 83, 84 win Cleveland Indians team, Perez could achieve 40 saves.  Either way, the best years of Chris Perez are yet to be seen and 2012 won’t even be there yet, however he should continue to get better.
The Closer Report 2012 Projections: 38 Sv – 5 Wins - 2.98 ERA – 1.20 WHIP – 40 Ks 

2012 Fantasy Draft Analysis:

Perez is just not one of my favorite closers in the draft and there are many more closers with better value.  He’s on a team that we just aren’t sure how well they will perform and he himself has been inconsistent over the past couple of years.  His ADP has him going in the 17th round and I think that is appropriate, maybe even a tad early.

Jose Valverde had an amazing 2011 season.  Not only did he record 49 saves, but he didn’t blow a save all season.  That is the first time I’ve ever seen a perfect record with that many opportunities.  So while I can’t overlook it, I also can’t expect it again.  Jose Valverde is a bit of an unpredictable pitcher.  Only once in his nine years of MLB service has he ever put tow consecutive good seasons together.  That was back in 2007-2008.  It’s also worth noting that Jose Valverde will be 34 once the 2012 season starts and that is right around the age where pitchers, particularly relief pitchers can begin to regress. Let’s also note that the Detroit Tigers had an amazing 95 win season in a division that offered no reasonable challenge for the division, the closet being the Cleveland Indians with 80 wins.  That will change this year and with that, the Tigers will not win more than 93 games and that is if everything goes perfect.

Jose Valverde is one of the most emotional closers in baseball.  Every one has seen his celebrations when he closes out a game and the goofy way in which he does it.  However, we’ve also seen that same powerful emotion hurt Valverde in his career.  The secret to his success is his splitter.  He has an average 94 MPH fastball, which lost velocity last year, that compliments his splitter.  He trew his splitter 1/5 pitches, more than most splitter closers throw it.  If Valverde wants to continue his big numbers from 2011, he will need to maintain what velocity he has left and continue to hit his spots and not miss with his splitter. 

The Detroit TIgers are geared up for a World Series run.  By adding Prince Fielder, that have one of the best, if not the best 1-2 punch in baseball.  While the rest of the Tigers offense is “iffy”, they’re pitching staff is not.  With Verlander, Scherzer, and Fister, Detriot will continue to put up wins and give Jose Valverde plenty of chances to pull out saves.    

The Closer Report 2012 Projections: 39 Sv – 3 Wins - 3.41 ERA – 1.24 WHIP – 64 Ks

2012 Fantasy Draft Analysis:

Valverde is one closer that I think is going a tad too high in fantasy drafts so far.  Of course you can look at his numbers last year and expect him to be great in 2012, but there is no guarantee that he will have another stellar year.  Right now Valverde is going around the 11th round.  That is far too high for him at this point.  With Valverde’s history, I’d only invest at best a 14th round pick in him.  There are just better value closers in the draft.

Matt Thronton is a dicey closer right now.  Currently he is the White Sox closer, but it is not a lock.  Thornton entered the 2011 season as the White Sox closer and simply imploded.  Not only did Thornton implode, but so did the rest of the White Sox bullpen until Sergio Santos arrived and calmed everything down. Now it looks as though he will get a second chance under new manager Robin Ventura. 

While Thornton had a terrible start last season, he settled in nicely finishing with a 2.91 ERA and maintaining a strong K/9 of 9.50, but that was well below the numbers he put up in the previous years.   What Thornton failed to do last year as closer and the hope is he will fix is getting out of the ninth inning with stranded runners on base.  His LOB% dropped dramatically last year to 61%.  Now to be fair, I remember that the White Sox defense did him no favors and actually blew a few saves for Thornton like a dropped fly ball.

If you just look at the numbers than you will consider that maybe Thornton won’t be the closer, but then again who are we kidding? The only other options for Ventura are Will Ohman and Jesse Crain, neither of which are better than Thornton.  In fact, Crain makes a great setup man and shores up that bullpen nicely.  So, assuming nothing goes wrong in spring training, expect Thornton to be the closer opening day.

Going beyond that I expect Matt Thornton to have a great season and solidify his role as a closer.   Granted, I’m not the biggest fan of Lefty closers, Thornton is excluded.  He delivers a 96-98 MPH fastball, a nice slider, and last year he brought in a cutter.  If that cutter looks good in 2012, its lights out in the ninth inning for the White Sox, especially when that cutter is complimented with a 97 MPH fastball.

The White Sox are a team rebuilding.  While they should win plenty of games, it’s not likely that Thornton will break 40 saves.  Still, he’s a fantastic closer to add to your fantasy bullpen because of his ability to record strikeouts alone. 

The Closer Report 2012 Projections: 38 Sv – 4 Wins – 2.20 ERA – 1.10 WHIP – 70 Ks

2012 Fantasy Draft Analysis:

Thornton will be a bargain no matter where you grab him.  His ADP has him falling all the way to the 23 round (265) and that is crazy.  For a closer with 38 save and 9+ K/9 potential, he is a steal anytime after the 19th round.

There is a new Francisco in town for the NY Mets. Out was the troubled Francisco Rodriguez, in is the often inconsistent, but effective Frank Francisco. After the Mets traded KROD last season to the Brewers, fill in closers Manny Acosta, Bobby Parnell, Jon Rauch, and others got the job done. In 2012, that job falls to Frank Francisco. Many of you know him from his days with the Rangers, where he saved 25 games in 2009 and managed to throw a chair at a fan.

In Frank Francisco’s career there isn’t allot that says he will be a dominating closer. However, Francisco has closed for two teams with tough divisions and while he has bouts of inconsistency, he gets the job done. Francisco maintains a strong 9+ K/9 rate and he also allows himself to balloon his ERA above 3.50 because there are days where he mentally cannot control the inning. This is why Texas and Toronto have given up on him, but the Mets see a good value and will give him the chance. I agree with them.

Francisco can close with the best of them and moving to the NL is exactly what the doctor ordered. He will also be in a less stressful environment with the Mets in a somewhat rebuilding mode.  I feel that he will have a revitalized season with the New York Mets as their closer, assuming he wins the job.  I fully expect him too. In fact, I think he can be so good in 2012 that his ERA will dip below 2.97.  This is all under the assumption that Francisco can stay healthy, which is asking allot and is what makes him such a fantasy risk.

The hard throwing right-hander delivers three pitches, fastball, curveball, splitter.  While I don’t like the curveball, it isn’t a bad one.  He can throw a slider now and then, but hardly ever does.

The Closer Report 2012 Projections: 40 Sv – 3 Wins - 2.97 ERA – 1.18 WHIP – 64 Ks

2012 Fantasy Draft Analysis:

 Frank Francisco is a major fantasy risk, but his draft value makes him a steal.  Right now, his ADP places him around 300, which is roughly round 25.  I’d be willing to draft Francisco in round 19, so getting him anytime after that is a monster bargain for a closer that IF healthy can get your fantasy team 40 saves.

Sergio Santos is a Blue Jay, the question is does that bode well for him or not? It likely will and that is the best I can say.  The Blue Jays are always broken up into two squads, The Good Blue Jays and The Bad Blue Jays.  When they are good, Santos will see plenty of saves,and when they are bad, he will go through long droughts.  Look at Frank Francisco last season closing for the Blue Jays.  Between June 30 through August 31 Frank Francisco had 3 save opportunities. That’s right, 3. That is exactly why it’s hard to be a great fantasy closer when you are the closer for the Toronto Blue Jays.

In 2011 Santos broke onto the closer for the White Sox.  He had a great first season going 30/36 in saves, posting a 3.55 ERA and 92 Ks.  Allot of the damage to his ERA was done in September, which he likely suffered from tired arm.  Before September his ERA was 2.63.

Santos commands three great pitches and makes him a strikeout closer.  He throws a 95-97 MPH fastball and keeps hitters honest with a slider and change-up.  The change-up is the nasty pitch.  When he has hitters looking fastball, but thinking slider and then he let’s go a change-up, it’s all over.

Santos is a curious pick for fantasy owners.  If I could get him in my bullpen I’d feel very secure.  Regardless of his years in service as a closer, Sergio Santos has the mentality and attitude  that a great closer requires.

The Closer Report 2012 Projections: 38 Sv – 2 Wins – 3.00 ERA – 1.10 WHIP – 85 Ks

2012 Fantasy Draft Analysis:

Santos is a good value at his current ADP of 170. I’d start considering him in round 13, but it would depend who else was on the board.  Anytime after the 15th round, if Sergio Santos is waiting there for your team and you need a closer, draft him.  Again I will state that my projections are conservative and he could lock down more saves if Toronto plays to its potential.

If Drew Storen was on a better team, he’d get 50 saves.

Ok, maybe. FIrst off, all those years of saying that the Nationals suck are over.  The 2012 Washington Nationals are poised for a playoff berth in a season that might have 10 teams make the playoffs.  Storen have a fantastic sophomore season where he finished with 43 saves, 74 Ks, and a 2.75 ERA.  He was 17/18 since August in saves and finished incredibly strong.

In 2012, the National have a strong rotation going into the season.  With Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez, and Edwin Jackson.  Storen will have ample opportunity to close out wins for those four pitchers.  Not only is the pitching staff stronger, but the Nats offense is a real threat in 2012.  It includes Morse, Werth, Zimmerman, and ROY candidate Bryce Harper.  The only problem the Nationals will have winning is remaining consistent and holding leads to even get to Drew Storen.  The bullpen leading to Storen has allot talent, but again consistently is an issue.  Tyler Clippard is a closer in waiting, but lefty Sean Burnett and Brad Lidge are guys to worry about remaining consistent.

One of the secrets to Storen’s success in 2011 was getting rid of his curveball, which worked well in college, but when closing in MLB curves don’t cut it.  Two years ago I commented on his curveball being his out pitch and that it’s a terrible pitch for a closer.  Here’s why.  Hitters are swinging aggressively in the 9th inning.  It’s their last chance and their mindset is go big or go home.  Throwing a curveball is dangerous.  First, they hang all the time and second they can still be hit even if it doesn’t hang.  He instead threw his slider and 96 MPH fastball much more and the results were amazing.

While my projections are conservative, if the Nationals remain consistent and can adjust to the pressure of being a winning team, Storen could easily break 40 saves.

The Closer Report 2012 Projections: 39 Sv – 5 Wins – 2.40 ERA – 1.10 WHIP – 70 Ks

2012 Fantasy Draft Analysis:

Storen won’t be easy to draft at a bargain.  He has a popular name and is likely on most owners wish list at a 43 save season.  While, he is a closer I’ll likely avoid because he will just cost too much, he is still a great addition to your fantasy bullpen if the price is right.  He has the second highest ADP amongst closers and will likely cost you a 7th or 8th round draft pick. Right now, I value Storen no earlier than the 12th round.  There are just more consistent closers on better teams available later in the draft.  Overall recommendation, pass on Drew Storen.

Huston Street has a new scene and it’s lovely San Diego.  The veteran closer moves from the cold and home run filled Coors Field to the comfortable stretches of Petco Park, where hitters go to die and pitchers love to thrive.  This is a huge flip for Street.  Not only will he find huge success in San Diego, but balls that would float out of Coors field will be tracked down in the deep bales of PETCO Park.

Huston Street is not the favorite of most fantasy owners.  He is often injured and has some consistency issues later in the season.  With that said, he is one of the more stable tier 2 closers and by going to the Padres I expect similar results that Heath Bell found in San Diego.

Street has a history of injury, particularly with his elbow.  Last season, Street was on the DL only once from August 9-26.  It isn’t uncommon to see pitchers hit the DL later in the season from overuse.  At 29 years old, Street’s age is not a factor.  What is a concern is limiting his appearances to keep him healthy the entire season similar to the way the Red Sox handled Jonathan Papelbon.  We will see how San Diego uses Street and hopefully avoids a trip to the DL.

As a fantasy closer, Street is capable of putting up good strikeout numbers and plenty of saves.  He’s to the best closer for ERA and WHIP, but that could change with being in San Diego.  Right now, I’m not projecting a drop in ERA, but it is possible.

Street uses a Fastball, Slider, Change-up mix and that is devastating to hitters.  His fastball is his most effective pitch because his change-up keeps hitters honest. 

The Closer Report 2012 Projections: 42 Sv – 5 Wins – 3.42 ERA – 1.17 WHIP – 60 Ks

2012 Fantasy Draft Analysis:

Street is always undervalued in fantasy drafts, but it’s actually a smart move based on his injury past.  His current ADP has him at 189, but he can go much later.  I place Street at a round 13 to 14 value.  If you get him there, good move.  If you get him later than that, it’s a steal.  He will likely produce like a 9-10 round pick, so definitely get this guy if the price is right.